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Capital flight from emerging markets has been accelerating in recent weeks. Turkey is
the poster child, but the exodus is also happening in India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa
and others – mostly from equity markets. This “hot money” is moving out over concerns
that asset bubbles have built up, and that emerging market economic growth is now
slowing. The slowdown is partly a result of tighter money in the wake of the Fed’s tapering
plans and a decelerating economy in China, many believe.
For a long time, strong economic growth in emerging markets kept that money
flowing in. Now, those growth prospects — relative to the more developed countries —
look to be sagging, and that money is starting to rush out. And with financial liberalization,
that often means there are fewer capital controls to prevent it from leaving quickly. Some
emerging market central banks are responding by raising interest rates to try and keep the
money in. Of course, that has a big downside: higher rates make it tougher for businesses
to get loans. And so far, those higher interest rates do not seem to be doing much to keep
it in.